Dota 2
CS2
StarLadder Budapest Major 2025: Pick'Ems Reloaded
Australia dominated South America three times over and jks fans rejoiced. This is not a statement we expected to describe Stage 1 with, but it’s the statement FlyQuest have made. In round one, they edged out a narrow win over stage favourites Legacy; in round two, they made short work of a mediocre Imperial; and in round three, they annihilated Fluxo to claim the first 3-0 spot. Meanwhile, M80 put NA back on the radar with tight victories over B8 and PARIVISION, before easily dusting off domestic rivals NRG to claim the second 3-0 spot.
Nobody would have guessed that the Aussies and a rag-tag team of NA misfits would earn fast-track tickets to Stage 2. They might not have been the betting favourites, but they certainly ended as fan favourites. Smiles all around—good for them.
Not so good, however, for the community’s Diamond Coin aspirations. With heavy 3-0 favourites FaZe and Legacy criminally underperforming, the “safest” picks failed to deliver. For many fans, their hopes were shattered as the first few matches unfolded. But not us.
Stage 1 - Analysis
So how did the model perform against the actual results? Our model’s top suggestion scored five points overall. That’s just enough to advance. You’re welcome.
There were a few curveballs, like the aforementioned FlyQuest and Legacy, plus FaZe narrowly avoiding an early exit. We can calculate exactly how “surprising” these outcomes were for the model, measured using natural log (nats). The higher the surprise value, the less we anticipated the outcome—we’ll leave it up to you to decide whether the big upsets are because our model missed something, or because Mercury was in retrograde.
| Team | Expected Result | Actual Result | Model Prob | Surprise (nats) | Prediction | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FlyQuest | 2-3 | 3-0 | 5.24% | 2.95 | Won’t Qualify | NO |
| Legacy | 3-0 | 2-3 | 5.35% | 2.93 | Qualify | NO |
| GamerLegion | 3-1 | 1-3 | 6.78% | 2.69 | Qualify | NO |
| M80 | 3-2 | 3-0 | 8.30% | 2.49 | Qualify | YES |
| Lynn Vision | 2-3 | 0-3 | 15.96% | 1.84 | Won’t Qualify | YES |
| FaZe | 3-0 | 3-2 | 19.88% | 1.62 | Qualify | YES |
| Imperial | 2-3 | 3-2 | 21.04% | 1.56 | Won’t Qualify | NO |
| NIP | 3-2 | 3-1 | 22.40% | 1.5 | Qualify | YES |
| PVISION | 3-2 | 3-2 | 23.69% | 1.44 | Qualify | YES |
| Fluxo | 1-3 | 2-3 | 23.99% | 1.43 | Won’t Qualify | YES |
| Fnatic | 3-1 | 3-1 | 24.77% | 1.39 | Qualify | YES |
| NRG | 1-3 | 2-3 | 25.48% | 1.37 | Won’t Qualify | YES |
| RED Canids | 1-3 | 1-3 | 30.18% | 1.2 | Won’t Qualify | YES |
| B8 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 30.48% | 1.19 | Qualify | YES |
| The Huns | 0-3 | 1-3 | 34.42% | 1.07 | Won’t Qualify | YES |
| Rare Atom | 0-3 | 0-3 | 34.94% | 1.05 | Won’t Qualify | YES |
That's 12/16 teams correctly predicted in terms of simple qualification accuracy. Instead of Legacy and GamerLegion, we got FlyQuest and Imperial. Overall, not bad for a messy Swiss system with relatively unknown teams. The majority of coaches, analysts, and content creators that we've seen post their Pick'Ems publicly are already out of the Diamond Coin race, and we can't blame them. Pick'Ems are a fickle beast that very few can tame. But with the humble bragging out of the way, a new stage means new predictions, so the model is going back to work.
Stage 2 - Best Predictions
This stage is definitely tougher than the last, and the probabilities reflect that. Last time, the highest probability Pick’Ems slate sat around a 50% chance of success. This time, it’s closer to 30%. Here are the top ten most promising combinations:
| 3-0 Teams | 0-3 Teams | Advance Teams | Coin Probability (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, TYLOO | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, Fnatic | 30.12% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, TYLOO | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, NIP | 29.81% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, TYLOO | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, 3DMAX | 29.73% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, FlyQuest | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, Fnatic | 29.57% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, M80 | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, Fnatic | 29.45% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, FlyQuest | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, NIP | 29.34% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, Passion UA | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, Fnatic | 29.31% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, FlyQuest | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, 3DMAX | 29.24% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, M80 | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, NIP | 29.22% |
| Aurora, NAVI | MIBR, Imperial | Team Liquid, FaZe, Astralis, B8, PVISION, Fnatic | 29.05% |
Stage 2 - Worst Predictions
Just like before, here are the top five least promising combinations:
| 3-0 Teams | 0-3 Teams | Advance Teams | Coin Probability (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIBR, Imperial | Aurora, NAVI | FlyQuest, Passion UA, Fnatic, NIP, M80, TYLOO | 0.89% |
| MIBR, Imperial | Aurora, NAVI | FlyQuest, Passion UA, 3DMAX, NIP, M80, TYLOO | 0.93% |
| MIBR, Imperial | Aurora, NAVI | FlyQuest, Passion UA, 3DMAX, Fnatic, M80, TYLOO | 0.95% |
| MIBR, Imperial | Aurora, NAVI | FlyQuest, Passion UA, PVISION, Fnatic, M80, TYLOO | 1.00% |
| MIBR, Imperial | Aurora, NAVI | FlyQuest, Passion UA, B8, Fnatic, M80, TYLOO | 1.01% |
Stage 2 - Marginals
Finally, here are the raw predictions:
| Team | P(Qualify) | P(3-0) | P(3-1) | P(3-2) | P(2-3) | P(1-3) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminated) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 87.12% | 35.59% | 32.69% | 18.83% | 6.87% | 4.29% | 1.73% | 12.89% |
| NAVI | 81.97% | 29.49% | 31.43% | 21.05% | 9.27% | 6.23% | 2.54% | 18.04% |
| Astralis | 70.65% | 19.78% | 27.57% | 23.30% | 14.02% | 10.50% | 4.84% | 29.36% |
| Team Liquid | 69.60% | 18.15% | 27.06% | 24.39% | 14.49% | 10.59% | 5.33% | 30.40% |
| FaZe | 67.87% | 19.55% | 25.90% | 22.42% | 16.26% | 11.08% | 4.80% | 32.14% |
| 3DMAX | 54.50% | 11.93% | 20.28% | 22.29% | 19.68% | 16.35% | 9.48% | 45.50% |
| B8 | 53.83% | 10.75% | 20.96% | 22.12% | 19.06% | 16.82% | 10.31% | 46.18% |
| PVISION | 50.47% | 11.66% | 19.21% | 19.60% | 21.97% | 18.61% | 8.95% | 49.53% |
| Fnatic | 42.53% | 7.93% | 15.58% | 19.02% | 22.69% | 21.44% | 13.35% | 57.47% |
| NIP | 39.72% | 6.96% | 14.52% | 18.25% | 21.31% | 22.63% | 16.34% | 60.28% |
| M80 | 36.94% | 5.27% | 13.45% | 18.23% | 20.81% | 23.42% | 18.84% | 63.06% |
| Passion UA | 34.25% | 4.86% | 12.53% | 16.87% | 21.90% | 24.52% | 19.34% | 65.75% |
| FlyQuest | 33.76% | 5.23% | 11.75% | 16.79% | 21.59% | 24.63% | 20.03% | 66.24% |
| TYLOO | 31.54% | 4.98% | 11.32% | 15.25% | 22.44% | 25.79% | 20.25% | 68.47% |
| Imperial | 25.10% | 4.56% | 9.02% | 11.53% | 25.11% | 31.62% | 18.18% | 74.90% |
| MIBR | 20.18% | 3.33% | 6.77% | 10.09% | 22.58% | 31.50% | 25.74% | 79.82% |