StarLadder Budapest Major 2025: Revenge of the Picks

If we had a penny for every time our model’s 3-0 favourite crashed out of the stage, we’d have two pennies. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice, right?

Aurora became the second top-10 team in the Valve rankings to be toppled by an unlikely underdog. The itinerary said “playoffs,” but now they’re stranded with Legacy at de_airport. Meanwhile, FaZe dialed up the magic to wizz past Aurora, before conjuring up a Ninjas In Pyjamas choke so severe it suffocated their entire tournament run. NAVI had a clean sprint through two of the stage’s weakest teams in FlyQuest and Imperial, claiming the other 3-0 slot after dominating the Ukranian derby. PARIVISON continued their impressive streak of upsets, claiming even bigger scalps than before. Finally, a 2019 throwback match saw Liquid triumph over Astralis, as NA's beloved M80 broke the hearts of a continent, and Imperial snuck by in their “polar bear in Arlington Texas” cosplay. A lot of emotions were felt.

Stage 2 - Analysis

You’ll be pleased to know, the model correctly scored the necessary five points once again. If you’re been following along with our recommendations, you’re one step closer to that elusive diamond coin. Or, at least, you’ll definitely get a gold one. If you're new here, we suggest checking out the first article of this series, where we explain in more detail how the model works.

As with the last stage, let’s take a look at how the predictions did, and which outcomes shocked our model the most, ordered by "surprise."

Once again, 12/16 teams correctly predicted in simple accuracy terms. No Aurora and no Astralis, but Passion UA and Imperial instead. It seems there’s a trend so far of exactly two major upsets happening per stage. But honestly, if we had to Pick’Em for this stage again, we wouldn’t change a thing—Imperial qualifying over Aurora is a statistical aberration.

In the last stage, we mentioned just how few Pick'Ems guides are still in with a chance for diamond. Now, we might be the only ones.

No pressure.

Stage 3 - Best Predictions

Curiously, the model thinks this stage will be much easier than the previous two. We have an ominous feeling about that, but I think everyone should tentatively agree. These picks are boring, but sometimes the best strategy is the least interesting one.

Stage 3 - Worst Predictions

Here are the ones you shouldn’t pick. It’s just tradition at this point.

Stage 3 - Marginals

Finally, here are the raw computed predictions:

If you’ve stuck with us this far, thanks for your support! Hopefully, we’ll make it all the way, together.