A tasty South American derby in the LANXESS - 9z vs FURIA Preview

On paper, this is the most one-sided of all the quarter-finals - but there’s added spice when it’s a South American derby.

9z have been in sparkling form and are much deserving of their quarter-final berth, but this is probably the biggest match they have ever played in and that is pressure.

Pressure that just won’t hit FalleN and co the same. Pressure that makes you or breaks you.

Fortunately for 9z, they are capable giant slayers. Fortunately for FURIA, they are more experienced and generally, the better team.

How did we get here?

Both teams got to 2-0 sharpish, but while FURIA breezed past BetBoom, 9z fell to Spirit in a game with three overtime maps. It was like MR15 was back for one glorious series.

9z though were the team who beat Vitality in the 1-0 bracket, and beat PARIVISION and The MongolZ to qualify, which is a solid list of scalps. FURIA’s biggest win came against MOUZ (or perhaps in retrospect, BetBoom), so have yet to play anyone genuinely elite - and might not ‘til the Final, if they get there.

9z in focus

luchov is so good dude.

This guy wins an absolutely ridiculous volume of duels. Easy duels, hard duels, weird duels, impossible duels, early round, late round, you get the idea. Our model adores him because he just wins his fights.

The weird thing is, though, that the round swing doesn’t quite match. It’s not bad or anything (actually it’s kinda bad in Cologne so far), just underwhelming for a guy of his duel winning ability.

9z maybe could be squeezing even more out of him, is what we’re saying.

His 93 CT rating is just one point lower than ZywOo’s. This guy is crazy. If 9z can solve their T side problems, which have not been so apparent in Cologne, they have one of the best teams in the world, quite frankly.

However, there are none who feel the T/CT discrepancy as much as poor meyern, who has an almost impressively rubbish T rating (11) and an unbelievable CT rating (87!) over the season. He ranks as the worst AWPer in Stage 3, and again that split is obvious. He just can’t play T side.

dgt has been fantastic so far, and generally is just a very good player. He’s given a lot of room on this team - he is allowed to trade luchov more often than not, given room to lurk and given resources and the best CT spots too, understandably.

He is the only one with an above average rating on T side for their role, though. 9z’s T sides can be problematic especially against great teams.

Incredibly, luchov is not at all prioritised economically on CT side, and has the secondary rotator roles. Imagine how good he’d be if he was entrying less and given more space on the CT side.

It’s no fluke that 9z are here. luchov and dgt are legitimately an elite partnership and max is an experienced caller. We’ve not even mentioned HUASOPEEK, who is a superb duelist from tough roles in his own right. Their riflers are so damn good.

It’s just meyern, on the T side we’re scared about. Well, most of 9z on the T side, but mostly meyern.

FURIA in focus

No such AWPer concerns over here.

molodoy is back to his best and it’s glorious to watch. At his best he’s an absolute menace, a top 3 AWPer in the world, and he’s been that in Stage 3.

In fact, their whole team has been insane in Stage 3. They’ve got four players above or close to the ‘superstar’ threshold. That’s insane - but not sustainable.

Over the season, molodoy’s ups and downs have led him to a much more modest rating by our model, but in a tournament format that average level matters far less than the ceiling you can hit in it. FURIA only need to win seven maps from here to be Major champions, and if molodoy can be the elite AWPer we know he is at his best for just three days… FURIA can rule the world again.

While 9z rely on the more explosive luchov, FURIA’s reliable superstar is the cold-blooded KSCERATO. KSCERATO is absolutely unflappable, impossibly consistent and incredibly versatile. He fulfils multiple roles at once and does all of them to an elite level. He’s incredible.

YEKINDAR is their more aggressive piece, and he’s a livewire. Much like molodoy, at his best he’s destructive and at his worst, self-destructive. FURIA, intelligently, platformed them with the solid and settled Brazilian core as a safety net.

Having KSCERATO to bail you out when your aggro pieces do mess up is unfair, frankly.

FURIA are one of the best teams in the world, and when they’re on it they are the most exciting, and possibly the highest ceiling team in the world too.

Expectations

A FURIA win, really.

9z have been a joy to watch and are definitely not here to make up the numbers, but FURIA are running mega hot and have so much stage experience.

meyern vs molodoy is a complete wash, and the AWP is just so important at this level. FURIA can compete rifle to rifle and then it comes down to who gets more out of their AWPer.

Obviously that’s an oversimplification, and one can envisage ways 9z can win this - it’s just one has to use their imagination far more.

9z’s T sides are just not good enough to reliably beat elite teams, and molodoy and KSCERATO are going to steal rounds they shouldn’t at some point. You need buffer rounds and 9z are likely not going to get them.

9z are a very good team who are capable of beating anyone. They are not a flash in the pan.

But that doesn’t change the fact that FURIA are just a bit better, a bit wiser, a bit more storied on the stage. FalleN has two Majors left and he isn’t letting 9z steal one of them away from him.

FURIA are, sadly, going to break 9z’s hearts.

You know, probably. It’s Counter-Strike after all.