Will karrigan lead Falcons to a Major trophy?

On our assessment, there are five legitimate superstar players within tier one Counter-Strike. This year, Vitality have two of them, and have firmly established themselves as a contender for the greatest roster in history. Falcons also have two of them, but cannot seem to manifest a victory in a playoffs match, let alone a trophy.

On an episode of Feed The Trolls that aired exactly a month before the news of karrigan's transfer to Falcons broke, I remarked that FaZe and Falcons share an interesting characteristic: they are both very loose, default-heavy squads. However, they massively differ in the pace with which they attempt T rounds, with NiKo's side preferring a slow, meticulous default that occasionally culminates in a last second execute or time-pressured scramble to get the bomb down, while karrigan prefers to get up in your face much quicker.

It has been repeatedly mentioned that Falcons have had some egregious fumbles within these moments, throwing many man-advantage situations due to poor coordination when the pressure shoots up. Especially in playoffs, kyousuke has faced (and continues to face) heavy criticism for his lacklustre performances. Worth considering is that, outside of NiKo, the squad is remarkably young and inexperienced relative to the expectations placed upon them. In particular, the players constituting the map control "pack" (m0nesy, kyousuke, and kyxsan) have an average age of only 21 years old. With NiKo having shifted to more extremity positions, making room for kyousuke as the team's primary spacetaker, the most vocal and tentured piece is often effectively sidelined during the mid-round. It's therefore not very surprising to us that we've seen them lose so many unlosable rounds.

So Falcons seem to have issues with coordination, lack an experienced caller, and want to play a style that gives their stars the freedom to showcase their absolutely stacked firepower. karrigan is exactly the cook for this kitchen.

While we adore this move on a theoretical level, it's important to deconstruct how it will play out in practice. There are a few questions worth answering. Will karrigan's form be good enough? How might this reshape their T & CT side approaches? How will the roles work?

Let's start there.

Currently, kyxsan occupies the majority of what we call "big site" anchor spots on CT. These are positions where, despite being an anchor, you almost always have a rotator nearby enough to throw utility or take contact for you. A site on Mirage, B site on Anubis & Ancient, etc. These tend to be slightly better performing anchor spots, because you are far less isolated when playing them. kyousuke, NiKo, and m0nesy are the rotators; primary, secondary, and AWPer, respectively, while TeSeS occupies most of the "solo site" gaps.

On the T side, kyousuke is the spacetaker on literally every map, while kyxsan is doing the supportive utility work on every map except Ancient. TeSeS is the squad's dedicated lurker, while NiKo fills more of a semi-lurk role. In terms of trading, kyousuke and kyxsan are most commonly taking space and entering a bombsite first, while the others are trading.

So, how does the ex-FaZe captain fit in?

For the most part, karrigan has been playing "solo site" positions on CT side and supportive roles on T side. There are some key exceptions: on Anubis, he often takes map control into his own hands; on Inferno, he allows frozen to play further back on the site by leading the charge down Banana himself; and on Nuke, he's dodging and weaving smokes Outside.

Some of these do seem to clash with the existing positions of his new squad, but only on the surface. TeSeS is perfectly capable of anchoring the larger sites, and has done so in previous squads, so it should be a relatively seamless promotion to the more active bombsites for him. The three "star" positions the Danish leader currently occupies (Outside on Nuke, Banana Aggressor on Inferno, and B Connector on Anubis) are similarly straightforward to square; karrigan never used to play them while rain was in the squad, because the Norwegian was high agency and a very vocal player. We speculate that karrigan only took the Outside job because jcobbb's lack of experience made it unfeasible for him to be a direct rain replacement—NiKo, conversely, might be the most experienced rifler in the world there. Likewise on Anubis and Inferno, both require a lot of proactivity, but aggression isn't really frozen's M.O. We reckon he'll happily concede these to kyousuke.

Ancient is the curious case, because CT Cave is truly up for grabs. This is a position commonly held by IGLs, but as with some prior spots, a vocal and reliable rifler can also manage. That's currently TeSeS, and could possibly remain that way, but it depends on how much karrigan wishes to utilise himself as an agent of chaos. Cave lends itself to information gathering, wallbang lineups, and opportunities for aggressive smoke pushes. This could honestly go either way.

Of the two, karrigan prefers to play with a faster tempo and lead from the front. In our opinion, this is one of the biggest upsides. By adding an additional aggressive, experienced voice to the pack, the burden won't fall exclusively on kyousuke to crack open bombsites and create trade opportunities. Given that kyousuke shoulders most of the criticism for their playoff woes, with the steepest rating fall-off on the squad, this may be the catalyst for levelling up his game. As we mentioned earlier, he's a bona fide superstar. There are no firepower concerns with this team, unlike the spiralling FaZe Clan.

Turning our attention to utility usage, one thing is clear: kyxsan was doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Compared to the averages for their roles, Falcons' system has the IGL and Lurker throwing considerably more flashbangs and smoke grenades than the average for their role. This is all to relieve the pressure of learning lineups from kyousuke's shoulders and allow him to focus on his crosshair, while also permitting m0nesy to be less supportive and more dynamic. It will be interesting to see whether karrigan will have to play less aggresively to pick up the slack, or if that onus will shift to m0nesy, for example. We should mention that Falcons are one of the most utility-reliant teams in the top 20, so perhaps they will simply make a fundamental switch. But, if you're a doubter of this move, this is where you should point.

Finally, the question on everyone's mind. Will karrigan's individual form be too heavy to carry? Honestly, we don't think so. As we explored previously, firepower is the very last issue Falcons have. To better illustrate that point, take a look at how each player differs from their role average. It is monstrous how much better the stars are on this lineup than their peers. As long as karrigan can create resources and space for them to shine, it doesn't matter if he's a bit worse than his.

We're way more concerned about TeSeS, actually. As the team's dedicated extremities player, he seems to be struggling on the T side, partly explained by how much utility he throws. With three resources-hungry titans of the game around him, he certainly sacrifices the most. But hey, if this lineup doesn't work, zonic can always say they just need one more star.

Regardless of whether you like or dislike this move, you cannot deny how interesting it is. Reuniting with NiKo and zonic after all these years, being given a true superteam, and going out with a bang is exactly what you'd hope for the twilight years of his career. FaZe post-s1mple have been quite pathetic to watch, but deep runs at the Majors with even these capitulating lineups proves that karrigan still has some magic in him. If he could lead a washed-up broky and the lowest firepower player in the top 10 (jcobbb), to a Major grand final...

We'll just say it: Falcons might actually win a Major this year.