The Hopefuls - IEM Cologne Major Preview

These six teams are The Hopefuls - those who have dreams and aspirations of a deep run, but with limited evidence to suggest it's their time just yet. These are not bad teams, these are not great teams, they're essentially the inbetweeners.

This is the next in our pre-Cologne previews where we'll get to every team before they play a game in Germany, broken down into a series of articles. Today, we have HEROIC, TYLOO, M80, B8, Monte and paiN.

We'll start with B8, because we believe they're the most likely to get out of this bracket.

If they could sort their AWPer situation out, they'd be a very, very dangerous team.

s1zz1 is extremely young and we're definitely not writing him off yet, and when B8 aren't yet ready to challenge we actually like that they're giving a young player room to grow and make mistakes. He is going to stop them being the best that they can be right now, but the difference between 16-24 and 8-16th is pretty immaterial.

He's very passive and stays away from the pack, but doesn't really put up the numbers that would make that worth it. He's given star space without star output right now, but it's the only way he'll get there.

He, like most of B8, could probably do with throwing some more util on the CT side. It's quite stark how little they throw.

kensizor hasn't had the best year either; talented player but a bit too quicksilver, especially for such an important role. His playstyle is pretty common for a player in his roles, nothing stands out, but he just needs to win more duels, quite simply.

Counter-Strike is a simple game.

There are three players, though, who come off well in the data. alex666 is better than the average IGL, esenthial has been one who has been one of the better support players in our ranking for most of the season, and npl continues to put up solid numbers in the star role.

With npl, the worry is the drop off versus top teams, but everyone drops off vs top teams.

B8 have had generally solid results, and are worthy of their spot at the event. We can't in good faith put them any higher than this because of our concerns over s1zz1 and how they scale up against bigger teams, but they generally reliably beat the teams they're 'supposed to'.

HEROIC, on the other hand, are far less reliable.

You just can't ever have faith in them beating anyone, but you also can't really bet against them either. This isn't a data-driven point, this is purely vibes. They've a touch of the old NIP about them, in that sense.

When you do look at the data, there's reason for tentative optimism. Just like B8, we're not going to rag on the underperforming AWPer, but for entirely different reasons. yxngstxr wasn't meant to be on this team, and he certainly wasn't meant to be the AWPer.

In fact while the tool cruelly suggests he's 'underperforming', we'd say for a guy who isn't an AWPer and was kicked for the team, he's doing an admirable job. Hell, he's doing better than broky. Low bar and all that, but again, he's not an AWPer and was kicked as a rifler.

He's largely doing the basics right, and while his duel swing is below 0%, he's still having impact on round swing. This is pretty typical of a guy wielding a gun he wasn't really comfortable with but is otherwise a good player.

Around him you have nilo, who pretty much everyone knows is just a fantastic talent, xfl0ud, whose numbers have come down a bit but at one point was loved by our model, and susp, who is mildly disappointing but we'll put that down to the whole team being a bit off it recently.

HEROIC's inconsistencies are hard to ignore, but they've also had to play the whole season with yxngstxr learning to AWP. They have a young but promising IGL (in the server his gameplay could improve, but probably would once he has his whole system in place properly) teaching some very gifted talent.

The future is bright - the present is flashes of brilliance interspersing stretches of mediocrity.

They can be very good, but chances are they'll be fine.

Similarly, we're not falling for the paiN trick again.

They may have had their once-every-three-months overperformance, but we're just not falling for it. They will always let you down in the big moment.

Their general level isn't even great any more; previously they were a good team who folded under pressure, and now they're a middling team with a gear to go up, but no conviction to finish the job. Losing to GamerLegion in Atlanta was proof of that.

saffee has fallen off a cliff with his mechanical skill, but is still having impact. vsm's absolute numbers have been shocking of late, and though the duel/round swing is a bit kinder, he's still nothing special. biguzera is a bit more selfish than other IGLs (snow is playing as the small site anchor and biguzera trades more than most IGLs) and is stilll not outperforming them.

snow we like - data is not massive on him but his eye test is much better and he gets shafted a bit on this team, and piriajr is quite clearly their best player.

They're fine. They're okay. They might even get a big upset in the group stage. But don't expect anything more.

A bit like M80.

There's a bit of a theme with these teams, and it's not their riflers not being good enough. They all have sub-par AWPers that stop them reaching the heights they should be capable of.

slaxz- is a player whose surface numbers look okay, but watch him for a few games and the mask slips. The underlying numbers match the eye test on this one, as his duel swing is just plain bad for an AWPer.

Well, it's bad for anyone, but especially for an AWPer.

He's just simply too easy to beat in a duel, and even though his impact is alright, it's nothing special, while his dueling is the worst on the team. This is what holds them back.

Lake has struggled since his explosive start to life on M80 after replacing malbsMd, but there's still something in there that we think he can tease out. Right now, though, he's not good enough to drag this team into a top 8, or maybe even a top 16.

JBa, on the other hand, has been a hot prospect in NA for a while, and it's easy to see why. He does difficult work with minimal fuss and gets more out of his roles than he should. This is another one where the eye test matches the data - he's a smart player, and makes very few mistakes. Swisher, too, seems to be thriving right now.

M80 are a decent team who can hurt you if you aren't at your best - but their firepower depth is too thin to consistently beat top teams.

At least Monte's biggest problem isn't their AWPer - though it is still an issue.

We know it's mean to keep harping on about what holds these teams back, but if they didn't have issues, they'd be higher up.

And anyway, this is a pretty low sample size all things considered.

AZUWU, though, was horrible last time out, and has had a pretty awful 2026. He's kind of the star rifler for this team, though he is a bit more pack-oriented than most, and he's not delivering whatsoever. His surface numbers are weak, his underlying numbers match the drapes, and he probably isn't quite good enough for Monte's aspirations.

rainwaker, on the other hand... your time on Liquid does not count.

Every time we watch this guy we're impressed with his timing and composure, and the data loves him, especially on the T side. He is lurking pretty much every round, but is quite often the first man in on bombsite hits, and a hard anchor on the CT side who largely gets stuff done when they come to him. He's like a tier two HeavyGod.

Just like the last time Monte went deep at a Major, if you ban Anubis against them, you'll probably be fine. Their star rifler isn't going to frag against anyone decent.

Someone whose star rifler can actually frag against decent teams is TYLOO; though they too might be plagued by the AWPer curse.

As always, caveat with the limited data set for a team like this, but Jee has not impressed since joining TYLOO generally in international competition.

It's his CT sides that really drag him down, which is unusual for an AWPer, but it's also the case for JamYoung, who is invariably their best player. TYLOO seem to have pretty solid T side players but some break down on defense. It probably doesn't help that despite being by far their best player on the attack, JamYoung is not prioritised at all in terms of resources on the CT side, and plays a weird mix of secondary rotator and anchor roles.

Mercury is sort of the hard support player on T side, but is given star roles on the CT side, while Moseyuh gets a lot of resources as the big site anchor. In some ways, he's given more star treatment than JamYoung, but does the hard lurk/hard entry dynamic we saw with rainwaker.

It's notable that TYLOO's duel swing isn't crazy (as one might initially expect from a team with such firepower but so little direction), but they generally do all pull their weight bar the AWPer. Their rifle firepower is legitimately scary and cannot be underestimated, but like a raging bull can be sidestepped by a cleverer, more prepared team.

TYLOO will probably do what they always do; show up, make some crazy plays, take a map off of somebody you don't expect them to and bow out 1-3 anyway. They aren't able to consistently get the best out of their firepower, but are always a very fun watch regardless.