Number four with a dream: Falcons, the Cerberus

Usually the bridesmaid, occasionally the bride; Falcons are too often nearlymen given the depth of their talent, but they sometimes pull it all together and look like the genuine article.

This is a team that was designed and brought together to win, and anything less feels like failure, but more often than not has failed on that brief for one reason or another. It’s not entirely the players’ fault - there are flaws to their line-up that are hard to fix without changes - but they also should have enough to carve out a few more trophies.

They are, still though, an elite team who have some of the best players to ever touch the game.

Falcons are an organisation who many want to see fail, but the players on this team are generally well-liked, causing a strange dichotomy in fan reaction. Most people don’t want to see Falcons succeed, but the idea of NiKo not winning a Major is sacrosanct too.

One way or another, they’re going to have to face their fears.

What are their credentials?

Since winning PGL Bucharest, they’ve finished top four at eight different tier one LANs without winning any of them.

That’s both incredible impressive and remarkably unsatisfying - it’s like never being KO’d, but having a negative record as a boxer. They cannot finish their dinner, but yet, they’re still sitting down for every meal, getting their face dirty.

That’s almost a little disrespectful, but genuinely, being top four so many times is remarkable in a tough era of Counter-Strike. They’ve remained pretty consistent, which is impressive for a team with three superstars who all have ideas on how to play the game, and do have a genuine shot at the Major.

They just have to convert these starts into wins.

Man for man

Where do you start with this roster?

NiKo is a legendary name in Counter-Strike and always will be. He has been at times the best rifler in the world, at times the best player in the world, but he’s still chasing that elusive Major trophy. He may be getting older, but he’s never lost that flawless first bullet aim, robotic crosshair placement and insane resting b*tch face. He’s still elite.

kyousuke is only at Falcons because Spirit couldn’t figure out how to get him and donk in the same team, because there’s basically no other reason to ever sell this kid. He’s absolute mustard already and looks set to be a top tier player until Counter-Strike stops existing, or Jame stops saving - whichever comes first. He’s so good that NiKo is no longer the aggressive opening piece, and kyousuke is instead tasked with opening up rounds for NiKo to close, and he’s way above average in his roles (more so than NiKo is in his, actually).

Completing the three-headed hydra (or indeed, Cerberus) is m0NESY, who has blossomed from the most exciting teenager in Counter-Strike to a bona fide world class AWPer. He’s absolutely incredible on both sides of the map, but on the T side he’s particularly impressive given the potential limitations of sniping on offense. Anyone of the three listed players above could be a Major MVP - but that does rely on Falcons winning.

Tasked with handling the ego, id and superego of this team is kyxsan, a quiet, unassuming guy (from the outside) who has earnt the respect of some of the best players in the world. He’s a weak-ish player at tier one (not outstandingly bad, but not the best either), but generally is a solid IGL who excels at picking apart other teams’ weaknesses.

That leaves TeSeS, who has not shown really what he’s good at on this team. On HEROIC he was a ruthlessly aggressive player who had a tendency to completely take over games when he was on it. An on-form TeSeS was legitimately one of the scariest players in the world, but instead on Falcons he’s been relegated to support duty and it’s hurt him, and the team. He isn’t as good at it as you would hope, and he’s suffering.

Why mightn’t they win?

We touched upon it there with the TeSeS point, but they are quite a diametrically opposed team, where one half is superstars and the other is two guys trying desperately to hold down the fort, and it leads to TeSeS and kyxsan both putting up subpar numbers even for their roles. TeSeS has never really looked comfortable in these spots, and it’s a bit of an open secret that Falcons have been or will be courting other players for his seat.

Their Ancient was their absolute go-to map with a massive win streak, but by the time we’d finished this article they’d lost their streak to B8. If that provides a blueprint to beat them on the map, they’ve lost their anchor map and it could throw their map pool into disarray.

It’s impossible to talk about Falcons winning the Major without addressing the elephant in the room, and that is NiKo’s curse. The guy is seemingly not allowed to ever win the Major, and has lost two finals already (one of which was absolutely not his fault, but he did famously have a very embarrassing moment) and frequently has horror moments at the biggest tournament of the year.

Their inability to convert top fours into wins includes losses to lots of different teams, and it seems to be something of a mental block. The one they did win involved beating FaZe and G2 in the top four, both of whom are not entirely likely to be top four teams at this Major (well, G2 might be after today, but they didn’t stand out before the Major).

What are their actual chances of winning?

Obviously they have a chance, and a better chance than most teams, but it’s still somewhere between a puncher’s chance and a chance in hell. They’re simply not the best team here and have such a poor record in semi-finals and finals that it’s hard to believe they’ll shake off NiKo’s curse.

It does seem like destiny, though, for m0NESY to win one, so maybe it’s a ‘buttered toast stuck to a cat’s back’ paradox type of deal. m0NESY is destined to win one, and NiKo is destined not to, so the grand final never finishes - it’s a perpetual overtime.

Their chance is probably somewhere around the 5-10% mark, but we could be convinced to bump it up a little. They’re still a very good Counter-Strike team, and stranger things have happened at Majors.

Don’t bet against them - but don’t bet on them either.

This is not betting advice. Obviously.