Finally, an event Vitality can't win - PGL Astana preview

We're going to see a team that isn't Vitality win a real trophy for the first time in what feels like 25 years.

That leaves a sort of eight-way battle for the title, which sounds ludicrous, but it's been so long since anyone won a trophy that we don't know any more who has the cojones for a grand final showing. Maybe PARIVISION are still those guys. Maybe FURIA are just terrible now. Are Spirit fixed or still massively flawed?

Answers to all those questions and many more won't be entirely answered by this event, but there will be some evidence one way or the other.

FURIA, Falcons, Spirit, MOUZ. All have massive question marks, but all stand out as teams who would have been nailed on top four only a few months ago.

FURIA's form has gone from mildly concerning to alarming in a very short space of time. They bowed out of BLAST Rivals very early and in a way that gives us no confidence that it was a simple blip and nothing is wrong. It's not the first time this year they've been wobbly, and it's the form of their star AWPer molodoy that is most concerning.

He was legitimately one of the best players in the world last year, but this year has been a bit more up and down, with far more down periods than any other elite AWPer. It was he who changed FURIA's fortunes last year, so they need him to refind that form or they'll be back where they were before him.

Falcons on paper look like the best team here, but as the adage goes, the game isn't played on paper, and that's rarely been truer than when you watch Falcons. karrigan is the sort of guy who will get the best out of a star-studded line-up and give everyone the space and resources they need, but it's very early on and his personal form is... not to put to fine a point on it, appalling. He can't frag. He shouldn't need to, but he can't frag.

Team Spirit are the same as they always were, except with a new wrinkle. They've seemingly figured out how to get tN1R to frag, but at the cost of sh1ro.

Without Vitality, and their rifle duo popping off, there's a good chance that nobody can live with them and they just roll the whole teamlist over to a trophy. There's also a solid chance they implode. Such is the life of Team Spirit.

MOUZ are the final horseman of the were-recently-good apocalypse, and that might be a reach. With a new player in xelex (who is promising but untested at this level) and a stand-in (we love jL, but it's been a while), there's so more questions than answers as to how ready they'll be.

That leaves PARIVISION, Aurora, The MongolZ and G2 as the challengers to those four.

PARIVISION have won a couple of trophies this year against the odds, but now everyone knows what to expect. Like Arjen Robben, though, that doesn't mean you can stop him cutting onto his left foot and bending it into the corner, or Jame from waiting until the last 20 seconds before moving out of spawn. They're tough to beat, and will abuse any flaws in your defaults or set-ups, which make them a great counter to the looser top teams.

But they do struggle to consistently outshoot teams, because their stars simply aren't as good as the other teams here. No shade, but nota and xiELO just don't shoot like kyousuke.

Aurora are a very dangerous team who all too often are the bridesmaids and not the bride. They can beat anyone, but their stage form is patchy and they rarely beat everyone.

XANTARES is a hell of a player, though, and soulfly massively buffed this team's floor to the point where they are a much better team than last year. It's unlikely they win the whole thing, but don't be surprised if they beat someone in the top four.

The MongolZ keep chugging along with their patented mix of Asian mechanical dominance and European understanding. We're still unconvinced that they are a top team with cobrazera, despite how well he has landed, but we'd love them to be. You certainly don't look forward to playing them, and they are not an unreasonable underdog to plump for.

G2... shrugs. Every piece is there for this to be a title contender, so we're just going to assume they can be. They're frustrating, inconsistent and total box-office. A must-watch team, and one who can do damage.

That leaves the rest, which is slightly disrespectful, but you know what we mean.

Monte and 9z have an upset in them, certainly, but we don't expect more than one shock win and maybe a 3-2 to go through to playoffs. The top eight is set in theory, but theory rarely works out like that and the Swiss system allows for some shenanigans.

HEROIC are dangerous, and yxngstxr has been surprisingly useful on the AWP so far in his stint, but they do still just feel incomplete. Gentle Mates have no rifle firepower but are otherwise a very clever and well-drilled side, and the final four are pretty much wildcards.

magic and K27 are both coming out of Eastern Europe, and we all know not to disrespect unknown Russian-speaking teams by now, but are still big outsiders for a reason. Fisher College are, quite literally, a college team (though they do have nealaN) and have never even seen an event his big for the most part, while The Huns have been at events before and done very little.

Our expectations are low. Of The Huns, we should say. Of the event, we're really excited to see who is the best of the teams below Vitality.