The biggest quarter-final of the year - Falcons vs Vitality Preview

It's hard to imagine a bigger and better quarter-final than this.

This is the best team of all time against the most expensive; but more than that, it’s karrigan magic on stage against the current holders.

There might be better teams than Falcons, but there is no bigger match-up than Falcons for Vitality - not least because they have been a bogey team for them.

NiKo has been a constant thorn in Vitality’s side even while they were seemingly unbeatable, and with karrigan, on stage, all games are winnable.

But this is Vitality we’re talking about. They collect trophies like we collect unplayed Steam games during the Summer sale.

ZywOo is in sparkling form still, flameZ and ropz are still the scariest rifle duo in the world and they’re probably still going to win.

How did we get here?

Falcons were nearly in a 2-2 game as NAVI had them on the ropes, which in karrigan terms makes them much stronger. He’s like Lucario in Super Smash Bros - when he hits low health he deals more damage.

Falcons pulled off a comeback and won in double OT to pull through 3-1, and meet fellow 3-1’ers Vitality. A shock loss to 9z didn’t stop an otherwise simple progression to playoffs, as expected for Vitality.

Vitality in focus

What do you want us to say? They’re great.

ZywOo is top right of the graph of stage three, as always. Our model has him as the second best player in the world, but we’ve had enough angry French tweets to know that isn’t a universal opinion.

He’s the best AWPer in the world. Let’s stick with that.

flameZ and ropz are both comfortably above the 0% line on duel swing, as per usual, mezii is just below and apEX is about where he should be. Vitality are, for the most part, the exact same team they’ve been for months, just maybe slightly less scary.

They are a team without weakness, with a history of winning trophies, with a defined system that half the world is copying. They are simply the team to beat and there’s not much else to say about it.

It will take something special to stop them.

Falcons in focus

Now if there’s a team with something special…

This is a rollercoaster team. The highs are absolutely bonkers. m0NESY might just be the third head of Cerberus with ZywOo and donk, kyousuke is the next up in terms of elite shooters, NiKo is legendary and TeSeS is no mug either.

karrigan is one of the best IGLs ever (at worst) and has an array of increasingly deadly weapons at his disposal. And yet, there are lows, and those lows hurt.

Falcons have an in-built bozo gene. We’ve all seen the 3v5s, the 2v5s, the pictures of NiKo looking like he’s been possessed. They just collapse sometimes, inexplicably.

karrigan has to sort that, but he himself has had a pretty famous Major bozo moment. Maybe he can use that experience to get past it, or maybe it’s bozo squared.

There’s also a big, glaring issue.

karrigan is one of tier one’s worst ever fraggers. Unc does NOT still have hands. Yes, he’s the IGL and he’s not meant to put up big numbers. Yes, he has three legitimate superstars.

But when you’re up against the creme de la creme, those margins matter. apEX brutally fragmogs karrigan, at this event and all of them, and that does make a difference. It’d be crazy to suggest it doesn’t.

When one finger is weak, the other four work harder to compensate and end up damaging themselves, and that can be true in CS too. If you don’t trust your anchor, you overrotate or lean too hard one way, make decisions you wouldn’t otherwise and if you don’t, he falls anyway.

It’s a catch-22; Falcons don’t need a fragger, they need a guy who can control egos and get the best out of stars. But that guy just can’t keep up any more, as a player. They either play 4v5 with a brain, or lose 5v2s without one.

The rest of them own. TeSeS is a solid player with pop off potential (especially under karrigan’s leadership). m0NESY is ridiculously good. kyousuke can be up and down but his ceiling is sensational.

And NiKo has been the third best player at the event.

He’s back in peak condition and is far and away the best second star here in Cologne, right now. He has actually been a bit inconsistent for most of this season, but if this is NiKo under karrigan again we’re in for something special.

Expectations

Honestly? We’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Falcons are going to get it done.

It’s karrigan on stage again. It’s NiKo in peak condition. It’s m0NESY, who surely is destined to win a Major some day. It’s kyousuke, the starlet, ready to come of age on the biggest stage. It’s TeSeS, ready for redemption after Rio.

Vitality aren’t quite at their absolute best, and Falcons have always been an issue for them. NiKo right now can be better than ropz. m0NESY maybe the only one who can match ZywOo. Man for man, they line up well.

Except for, erm, karrigan.

That’s a big problem for FaZe. They have a big red weak spot, like a video game boss, asking to be hit. If Vitality can pick them apart from that chink in the armour, the game changes.

You cannot let ropz and ZywOo breathe or they will slaughter you.

That’s the only player match-up that feels one-sided, and it could be an important one in a close game. karrigan can normally overcome his deficiencies with calling, but he’s up against a fellow IGL legend.

Vitality are the best team of all time for good reason, but are they the best team of June 2026? We’re not so sure. Their form has been patchy, and Falcons have a bit of magic about them.