AWPer mid-off as stars collide - BetBoom vs Aurora Preview

The gatekeepers of tier one have a task on their hands keeping BetBoom out on Thursday.

Aurora are a very solid team who don’t seem to quite have the minerals to be a legitimate contender; but they are often a dream-killer for plucky upstarts who separate the wheat from the chaff, making this a perfect match-up in some ways.

It mightn’t be as flashy as some of the other juicy ones, but in a lot of ways it’s more intriguing. BetBoom are probably the team with the most question marks here, and we’ll learn more about their ability to remain at the top level by a series against Aurora than against, say, Spirit.

If you can beat Aurora, reliably, you’re probably a top 8 team, reliably.

How did we get here?

Of BetBoom’s 12 games in Cologne already so far, they’ve only lost to Spirit in a BO1, Vitality and FURIA. They coasted through the first stage, lost an opener to Spirit (so did everyone else) before winning three in a row in stage two, and beat The MongolZ, Falcons and FUT to advance to playoffs despite losses to Vitality and FURIA.

That’s an absolutely sensational set of results for a team not yet ‘settled’ in the upper tiers.

Aurora on the other hand have also lost only to Spirit, with wins over Monte, G2 and the emergent 9z all without dropping a map. Also, genuinely impressive, and suggests this is an Aurora who are back to their best and ready to gatekeep.

BetBoom in focus

BetBoom are a bit of a strange case where they’ve played very few events with their actual five players, and even here don’t have s1ren, and yet it doesn’t seem to matter. They brought in FL4MUS for d1ledez as a stand-in and accidentally drew a royal flush, and then somehow improved and drew Exodia when d1ledez came back in for s1ren at this event.

d1ledez himself has been excellent in stage three, with just over 100% duel swing in his support roles.

That in some ways encapsulates what makes BetBoom scary. They have firepower top to bottom, especially when Boombl4 steps up the plate. That guy just loves a big game, and that’s a massive bonus for BetBoom. There’s only one guy in the server who knows how to play in a Major final - and win.

Magnojez has morphed into one of the most stable star riflers in the world, too. He has always had sky high potential, but of late has begun to realise it. While he hasn’t been lights out in terms of that firepower we just hyped up, with slightly above average duel swing, there’s only one star rifler who is having more impact on round swing than he is.

No prizes for guessing who.

He’s not had a stand-out stage three in many aspects, but was sensational against Falcons to help BetBoom to a 2-0. He’s generally the more consistent and solid one of the star pair, while FL4MUS runs a bit more hot and cold.

The star pair are a little less traditional in that their roles reverse somewhat between halves. FL4MUS is the aggro star on T side but more of a static piece on CT (and rates much higher on T side) while Magnojez is more passive on the T side and a star on defense. It’s a bit of a flameZ/ropz dynamic, and both shine on different halves.

d1ledez has just slotted into s1ren’s roles, and been a duel winner more than him. s1ren is about as middle of the road as you’ll find, which is not a criticism. He’s reliable, if unspectacular.

When we looked into BB before, we noticed that Boombl4’s stats looked pretty terrible; but we also noted that he’s a big game player. When you need him, he’s got a carry in him more than other similar IGLs, and so far that’s proven to be prophetic. He’s also a Major winner, by the way.

If BetBoom have a fatal flaw, it’s the AWPer. More often than not the top teams have the best AWPers, which sounds really obvious - but compare the level of AWPers from stage two to stage three. It’s night and day.

zorte is… fine. He’s a bit mediocre at tier one level, in fact he’s not really above average in tier two. He’s passive and supportive and looks alright on the eye test at first glance, but makes too many positional errors to ever be a top AWPer. He might be the worst AWPer in the top eight, though meyern just about comes off worse in the stage three data. Overall, though, meyern usually comes off better.

Not saying a lot, though.

BetBoom are a good team with an excellent star pair and an IGL who can pop off. Their biggest flaw is their mediocre AWPer, making them stylistically not dissimilar to Aurora.

Aurora in focus

Aurora also have a deadly star pair.

XANTARES is the headline act, but our model loves Wicadia more. We generally have him as a solid overperformer for his roles; he’s a sort of aggro-lurk, sharing a lot of that duty with soulfly, while XANTARES is given a sort of princess treatment - spacetaking early round without having to entry.

He repays them well, to be fair, but maybe not as well as he could a few years ago.

soulfly is an interesting case here - early on in his time with Aurora the model LOVED him. He was doing difficult, ‘glue player’ stuff extremely well, and while he’s generally tapered off a bit to a more average level (still impressive given he’s on a top 10 team), he’s been sensational at this event.

This does not seem sustainable - but even if he’s a bit worse than this he’ll still be one of the best glue players in the playoffs.

Much like BetBoom, Aurora’s weakness is the AWPer, but in our opinion to a much lesser degree. woxic is nothing special and doesn’t hit anything crazy like he used to, but he also doesn’t miss dollies like zorte does sometimes. Yes he’s underperforming, but he’s playing much better opposition most of the time.

MAJ3R isn’t a fragger and never really will be, but he’s not horrendous. Unc can play a bit, just not loads. His calling can be an issue though - it’s notable that everyone on Aurora has a higher CT rating than T, and that they have three players not throwing util.

We have all been there.

Their bigger weakness is actually their mental fortitude on the big stage, and perhaps the lack of solid T side protocols is part of the reason. XANTARES and Wicadia have a tendency to cool off quite a bit on stage, and given they have the space and ability to bring Aurora up to this level, that’s a concern.

Expectations

This could legitimately be any result and none would be surprising.

Aurora are a more reliable, been there done it team. We know what they do, they execute to a high level but have a glass ceiling. They are the team at the level that BetBoom are climbing to, and as such are the favourites here.

The AWP battle will be key here, and woxic is for our money a better player than zorte. He is more experienced, less fickle, and will outposition him. Neither team has a standout AWPer, but it’s such a key role and Aurora’s is better.

It’s particularly key because the star riflers are so well balanced, in theory. Magnojez and XANTARES are hard to separate, and so are Wicadia and FL4MUS. Even though soulfly has been flying, d1ledez has been winning duels with similar frequency and ease.

There are three main battles in this war.