Was the NertZ & malbsMD swap good for G2 or Liquid?

We've waxed poetic about the virtues of Duel Swing for a while now (if you're still uninitiated, read this explanation of how it works). Now is an excellent time to put it to work, as G2 have reached a transfer agreement with Liquid to trade malbsMD for NertZ.

G2 have been struggling since their honeymoon trophy lift in London, where they snatched an unlikely victory against a slow-starting Vitality. Falling narrowly shy of playoffs in nearly every tournament since then, they looked destined to make a change. Many fans have called for the head of SunPayus, who has only shown glimpses of the superstar he used to be towards the end of CS:GO, but the current drought of eligible AWPers to replace him makes that troublesome.

Liquid have found themselves in a similar situation—their AWPer is clearly subpar for a squad aiming to be tier 1 title contenders, but making a meaningful upgrade is difficult when supply is at an all-time low and demand is extremely high from more performant organisations.

Naturally, both teams have opted to swap two aggressive riflers instead. Question is, are these the same type of aggressive rifler? And if not, which team is likely to benefit the most? Let's find out.

Firepower

Duel Swing works really nicely alongside Star Points, because a player with Star Points near one is expected to average -100%, a player with Star Points near three is expected to average 0%, and a player with Star Points near five is expected to average +100%. In layman's terms, the better your positions and the more resources you are given (dropped weapons, hero rifles, average equipment value, util support, etc.), the higher your firepower should be.

Looking at G2, they actually have a really solid core of riflers. HeavyGod especially is an exceptionally talented player considering he is the least-resourced player in the team. SunPayus is a fraction below average, which is unfortunate for an AWPer of his former calibre. The interesting point is actually huNter, who is almost equal in Star Points to his other riflers, but significantly below par for that level of investment. It is unusual to see IGLs this far to the right, and suggests he is one of the least sacrificial callers in tier 1; other IGLs that share this archetype are biguzera on PaiN, bLitz on The Mongolz, and old blameF on Astralis.

For Liquid, there's no escaping the fact that ultimate is the poorest performing AWPer in tier 1 Counter-Strike. He's quite under-resourced compared to the average sniper, which does partly explain his troubles. Liquid have always historically prioritised their rifle cores, never building a system around an AWP, even with the Grand Slam-winning squad. EliGE and NAF are both keeping up relative to their inputs, but they aren't delivering anything special. siuhy is a bit weak in the fragging department, but this is balanced out by a very dominant NertZ.

If we only cared about firepower, we'd say that NertZ is a strict upgrade over malbsMD and end the discussion. Luckily, there's more to the game than just fragging, so let's deconstruct exactly what each are doing in their respective teams.

Entry Work

You can accurately describe both malbsMD and NertZ as aggressive, maybe even "openers", but theres one thing malbsMD is that NertZ isn't — a sacrificial bombsite entry.

Liquid have two early brawlers in NertZ and EliGE, with Aggro Points averaging around four, meaning they are taking the first or second gunfight almost every round. They also have a less aggressive piece whose role is to die in ways that set his teammates up to trade. In this sense, siuhy is a very traditional IGL, willing to run into danger first in service of winning the round.

This is something that huNter does not do nearly as much. Compared to most IGLs, he is far less willing to sacrifice for his team, leaving malbsMD to roll up his sleeves and take on the brunt of G2's dirty work, with the occasional contribution from MATYS.

CT Roles

Likewise, there's a discrepency between how well these players are set up on the CT side. When we talk about "Role Quality", we're referring to the player's average positions across all maps and how well players in those positions tend to frag, relative to each other. So AWPers are universally near five, while players who are typically solo bombsite anchors (think B Mirage) are near one. This gives us a spectrum where further right means higher fragging rotator positions, while further left means supportive anchor type.

In Liquid's case, NertZ is a clear CT rotator, with equal CT Role Quality to EliGE, with NAF as a dedicated small site anchor and siuhy playing mostly the other anchor spots. In G2's case, the best CT Roles are shared between MATYS and huNter, with malbsMD having to anchor the A site on Mirage and play Long on Dust2, for example.

Because of this, there's also a difference in how supportive these players are expected to be with utility on the CT side. malbsMD is currently throwing the second most flashbangs per round for G2, while NertZ is getting told "flashing behind you." Clearly, they are not equally set up to succeed.

So who benefits?

One final thing we haven't discussed yet (because it's impossible to measure) is the effect on each team's morale. Liquid do not look like a team that enjoys playing Counter-Strike, which may have driven NertZ's departure. Having an extra NA representative in malbsMD, who is also more willing to be supportive, might do wonders for their chemistry and cohesion. "Might" is the key word there, because we don't think it actually will. They might make it to the Major though, now that they can go the NA route.

On the flip side, G2 are losing a Second Star player who was willing to take on a lot of dirty work in exchange for a more resource-heavy alternative. NertZ is more than capable of picking up the odd anchor role—he has proven that a few times now—but it comes at the cost of his firepower upgrade over malbsMD. G2 were already a good team, much better than Liquid in our opinion, and they have probably obtained the stronger player here. Despite this, we're not confident that they will meaningfully improve either.

Why are we so down on these moves?

In our opinion, both teams have a glaring issue that still isn't fixed:

• Liquid's AWPer is not good enough.
• G2's IGL is not supportive enough.

Plugging these holes is what we believe can really make a difference. Even if some fresh faces might provide a short-term buff, these are what need to change for either team to start seeking trophies again.